To: Interested Parties
From: Zach Zaragoza, Executive Director, Nevada State Democratic Party
Subject: Voter Registration Advantage for Nevada Democrats
Date: Thursday, September 1, 2016
All signs point to the fact that Nevada will be a heavily contested battleground all the way to November, but one that Democrats should win. As our field team of organizers and volunteers gears up for the fall, voter registration is one of the key metrics for success in Nevada — and since the start of the election year, voter registration has steadily trended our way.
Over the course of this year, Nevada Democrats have steadily increased our registration advantage over Republicans with active voters. At the end of August 2016, despite an inactivation of some voters, Democrats maintained a 71,637 voter registration advantage (5.4%).
Based on previous presidential years, Democrats are in better shape at this point in the cycle than in 2008 or 2012 in terms of our raw advantage.
- In 2012, when President Obama won Nevada by 6 points, Democrats had a 55,716 registration advantage (5.0%) at the end of August and ended the cycle in October with a registration advantage of 90,187.
- In 2008, when President Obama won Nevada by 12 points, Democrats had a 61,705 registration advantage (5.8%) at the end of August and ended the cycle in October with a registration advantage of 100,723.
A few important notes on this month’s shift of active voters to inactive status:
- All registered voters are eligible to vote in the upcoming 2016 general election, regardless of active or inactive status.
- Despite the fact that inactivations disproportionately impact Democratic voters, the inactivation had an overall insignificant impact. The party only had a net loss of 750 active voters from our statewide registration advantage this month.
- Relatively few of these inactivations of registered Democratic voters were in the most competitive districts. In some key swing districts, Democratic gains and Republican inactivations enabled Democrats to continue to expand on our registration advantage this month.