Las Vegas, NV – Today, the political analysts at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball made a key ratings change in Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District, shifting the battleground House seat from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up.” The decision was driven in large part by “the increasingly likely odds of the GOP nominating Trump or Cruz for president” and the impending down-ballot apocalypse that will follow.
While the GOP’s messy primary battle ramps up between conservative businessman Danny Tarkanian and Republican Senate boss Michael Roberson, Democrats are building a growing voter registration advantage in this competitive open seat. The Southern Nevada district, which President Obama won in 2008 and 2012, now has 3,300 more Democrats than Republicans.
Democrats are also in a strong position to defeat accidental Congressman Cresent Hardy in Nevada’s 4th Congressional District. Hardy – one of the most vulnerable members of the House – keeps doubling down on his support for reality TV star and bigot-in-chief Donald Trump if he becomes the Republican Party’s standard-bearer. The district, which Obama won by double digits in 2012, now has 30,400 more Democrats than Republicans. Not surprisingly, Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates the seat as “Lean Democratic.”