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Winning West not a given for Arizona’s senator |
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 By J. Patrick Coolican
Sen. John McCain came to town Friday, a reminder to Democrats that their plan to take the White House via the intermountain West may now be in doubt.
Nevada and other states in the region, including Colorado and New Mexico, are seen as seen as crucial battlegrounds whether the Democratic nominee is Illinois Sen. Barack Obama or New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.
Republicans have saved themselves by nominating a westerner, said Tom
Schaller, a political scientist who recently wrote a book arguing
Democrats should cede the south and pursue a western strategy to match
their strength on the coasts and the upper Midwest. “Of the
Republicans, he was their best bet,” Schaller said.
McCain, who has represented Arizona in Congress and the Senate since
the 1980s, will win his home state and likely take the solidly
Republican states of Utah, Idaho, Montana and Wyoming.
Holding the whole region, as McCain adviser Charlie Black recently
predicted, is an exaggeration, Schaller said. Still, the affable former
Navy fighter pilot, who was a POW and has broad crossover appeal with
independents and Democrats, will be formidable in the West. This is
especially so as Obama and Clinton continue to bang away on each other,
unable to turn their full attention to McCain.
But McCain’s quick Friday visit to Las Vegas also showed his
vulnerabilities. He finished third in the Republican contests here in
January.
McCain is badly underfunded compared with his Democratic rivals, who
have raised $360 million to McCain’s $66 million, though he tried to
rectify that with a fundraiser Friday at national Republicans’ favorite
Las Vegas stopover, the Venetian, whose owner Sheldon Adelson is one of
the most generous conservative donors in the country.
McCain is also facing a difficult issue environment. In a recent speech
on the mortgage crisis, he warned of government doing too much and said
his administration would take a laissez-faire approach, not the best
message for the many voters feeling economically insecure.
During a brief news conference after the fundraiser, McCain encouraged
the national press corps traveling with him to contribute to the
struggling local economy. (The Sun heard a recording of his comments;
the news conference ended before its scheduled beginning, not atypical
for the unpredictable McCain.)
McCain’s typically good-humored barb was his only comment on the local
economy. Obama and Clinton, by contrast, have made a point to talk
about the local economy when in Nevada, and each has detailed, robust
plans to deal with the mortgage mess.
McCain’s strength is national security and his staunch and faithful
support for America’s effort in Iraq. That position isn’t exactly
convenient at the moment, however, as rival Shiite groups do battle in
Baghdad and the southern city of Basra. There are reports of Iraqi
government forces joining the rival faction. Saboteurs badly damaged
the country’s second largest oil pipeline.
McCain said the Iraqi government’s attempt to stamp out its Shiite
rival and its radical cleric Muqtada al Sadr, is a “sign of strength”
of the Maliki government. He said he respects the decision and hopes
the Iraqi government is successful.
The new fighting, coming after months of reduced violence credited in
part to America’s increased military presence, seemed to illustrate the
lack of political progress in Iraq and the complexity of the ethnic and
sectarian conflict. By grounding his candidacy on such a fragile
situation, McCain could face these difficult moments from now until
November.
Finally, McCain is not with Nevadans on some local issues. He said he
followed the advice of respected college basketball coaches when he
offered legislation banning college sports betting. As he noted, the
legislation isn’t going anywhere, but his proposal may still bother
some Nevadans given the effect it would have on the local economy.
McCain has also long favored Yucca Mountain, though he’s recently said
he would abide by what scientists say is safe and effective. The time
for delaying a solution, however, is finished, he said.
These local vulnerabilities might leave McCain on the margins, as
voters tend to vote on national issues and perceptions of character in
presidential races.
Given these vulnerabilities, though, Schaller said the eventual
Democratic nominee needs to take on McCain in the West, which could
ease the pressure for a Democratic victory in Ohio in the race for 270
electoral votes.
Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, which is the site of the Democratic
National Convention in August, are worth 19 electoral votes, or just
one shy of Ohio, and enough for victory.
J. Patrick Coolican can be reached at 259-8814 or at patrick.coolican@lasvegassun.com.
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Representing the Third Senatorial District in Clark County.
Former Nevada State Democratic Party Chair, former state assemblyman and running for re-election to Clark County Commission, Seat B